US CPI (2024-06-12) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Event Snapshot

• Event: CPI
• Asset: QQQ
• Event date: 2024-06-12
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 637 days
• Sample size (all-history): 39

Event Outcome

• CPI Outcome: DOWN (Actual 313.044, Previous 313.175, Delta -0.1310)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	61.54%	38.46%	0.21%	0.23%	39
T+7	55.26%	44.74%	0.58%	0.2%	38

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	100.0%	0.0%	0.54%	0.54%	1
T+7	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0

Historical Distribution Summary

When CPI was DOWN, QQQ T+1 up probability was 100.0% (n=1).

When CPI was DOWN, QQQ T+7 up probability was 0.0% (n=0).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 0.0%.

For QQQ, historical CPI windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 61.54% and T+7 up probability of 55.26%. When CPI printed Down versus previous, T+1 up probability was 100.0% and T+7 up probability was 0.0% across 0 matched cases. Current classification is Bullish; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (CPI) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.