Event Research Archive

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BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-03-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2026-03-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH CPI Win Rate (2026-03-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2026-03-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD CPI Win Rate (2026-03-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

55%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2026-03-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Neutral

QQQ After CPI (2026-03-11): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2026-03-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2026-03-11) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

62.5%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2026-03-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

2026-03-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

28.57%

T+7 P(up)

60%

Event date: 2026-03-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2026-03-06): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

48.57%

T+7 P(up)

57.14%

Event date: 2026-03-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

2026-03-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: GOLD Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

63.64%

T+7 P(up)

77.14%

Event date: 2026-03-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2026-03-06): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

59.09%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2026-03-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

NFP Print (2026-03-06) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2026-03-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-02-13): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2026-02-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH CPI Win Rate (2026-02-13): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2026-02-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2026-02-13) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

55%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2026-02-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Neutral

QQQ After CPI (2026-02-13): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2026-02-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY After CPI (2026-02-13): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

62.5%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2026-02-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2026-02-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2026-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH CPI Win Rate (2026-02-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2026-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2026-02-12) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

55%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2026-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Neutral

QQQ CPI Win Rate (2026-02-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2026-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY Reaction to US CPI (2026-02-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

62.5%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2026-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

BTC After NFP (2026-02-11): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

28.57%

T+7 P(up)

60%

Event date: 2026-02-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

ETH After NFP (2026-02-11): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

48.57%

T+7 P(up)

57.14%

Event date: 2026-02-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2026-02-11): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

63.64%

T+7 P(up)

77.14%

Event date: 2026-02-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2026-02-11): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

59.09%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2026-02-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

2026-02-11 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2026-02-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2026-02-06): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

28.57%

T+7 P(up)

60%

Event date: 2026-02-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2026-02-06): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

48.57%

T+7 P(up)

57.14%

Event date: 2026-02-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2026-02-06): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

63.64%

T+7 P(up)

77.14%

Event date: 2026-02-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

2026-02-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

59.09%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2026-02-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

SPY NFP Reaction (2026-02-06): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2026-02-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2026-01-28) for BTC: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2026-01-28 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

Fed Decision (2026-01-28) and ETH: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2026-01-28 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

GOLD After FOMC (2026-01-28): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2026-01-28 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2026-01-28) and QQQ: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2026-01-28 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2026-01-28) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2026-01-28 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2026-01-13): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2026-01-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

2026-01-13 CPI Release: ETH Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2026-01-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD CPI Win Rate (2026-01-13): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

55%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2026-01-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Neutral

2026-01-13 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2026-01-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY CPI Win Rate (2026-01-13): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

62.5%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2026-01-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-01-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2026-01-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

2026-01-12 CPI Release: ETH Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2026-01-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD After CPI (2026-01-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

55%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2026-01-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Neutral

QQQ CPI Win Rate (2026-01-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

60%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2026-01-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2026-01-12) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

62.5%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2026-01-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP UP Neutral

2026-01-09 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

28.57%

T+7 P(up)

60%

Event date: 2026-01-09 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH After NFP (2026-01-09): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

48.57%

T+7 P(up)

57.14%

Event date: 2026-01-09 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2026-01-09): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

63.64%

T+7 P(up)

77.14%

Event date: 2026-01-09 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

2026-01-09 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

59.09%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2026-01-09 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP UP Neutral

2026-01-09 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2026-01-09 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2026-01-02) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2026-01-02 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP UP Neutral

2026-01-02 Nonfarm Payrolls: ETH Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2026-01-02 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2026-01-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2026-01-02 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ After NFP (2026-01-02): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2026-01-02 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY Post-NFP Setup (2026-01-02): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2026-01-02 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-12-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-12-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2025-12-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-12-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

2025-12-12 CPI Release: GOLD Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-12-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ Reaction to US CPI (2025-12-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-12-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2025-12-12) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-12-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-12-10) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-12-10 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

2025-12-10 FOMC Meeting: ETH T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-12-10 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2025-12-10 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-12-10 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

QQQ Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-12-10): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-12-10 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-12-10) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-12-10 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-12-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-12-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2025-12-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-12-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2025-12-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-12-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

2025-12-05 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-12-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY After NFP (2025-12-05): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-12-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2025-11-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-11-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH CPI Win Rate (2025-11-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-11-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2025-11-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-11-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

2025-11-12 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-11-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY CPI Win Rate (2025-11-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-11-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-11-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-11-07 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2025-11-07) vs ETH: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-11-07 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2025-11-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-11-07 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2025-11-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-11-07 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY NFP Reaction (2025-11-07): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-11-07 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-10-29) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-10-29 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH After FOMC (2025-10-29): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-10-29 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2025-10-29 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-10-29 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

2025-10-29 FOMC Meeting: QQQ T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-10-29 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

SPY After FOMC (2025-10-29): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-10-29 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2025-10-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-10-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2025-10-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-10-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD After CPI (2025-10-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-10-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ After CPI (2025-10-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-10-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY Reaction to US CPI (2025-10-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-10-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

2025-10-03 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-10-03 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2025-10-03): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-10-03 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2025-10-03): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-10-03 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

QQQ After NFP (2025-10-03): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-10-03 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

NFP Print (2025-10-03) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-10-03 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-09-17) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

2025-09-17 FOMC Meeting: ETH T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2025-09-17 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

QQQ After FOMC (2025-09-17): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-09-17) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-09-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-09-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

2025-09-12 CPI Release: ETH Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-09-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2025-09-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-09-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ Reaction to US CPI (2025-09-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-09-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2025-09-12) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-09-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2025-09-05): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-09-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH After NFP (2025-09-05): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-09-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2025-09-05): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-09-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2025-09-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-09-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY Post-NFP Setup (2025-09-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-09-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

2025-08-12 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-08-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2025-08-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-08-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD After CPI (2025-08-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-08-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ Reaction to US CPI (2025-08-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-08-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY After CPI (2025-08-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-08-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-08-01): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-08-01 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2025-08-01): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-08-01 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

2025-08-01 Nonfarm Payrolls: GOLD Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-08-01 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2025-08-01): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-08-01 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

NFP Print (2025-08-01) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-08-01 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-07-30) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-07-30): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

GOLD After FOMC (2025-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

QQQ After FOMC (2025-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2025-07-30) for SPY: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2025-07-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-07-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2025-07-12) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-07-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

2025-07-12 CPI Release: GOLD Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-07-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ Reaction to US CPI (2025-07-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-07-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY Reaction to US CPI (2025-07-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-07-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC After NFP (2025-07-04): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-07-04 · As-of: 2026-03-12
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2025-07-04): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-07-04 · As-of: 2026-03-12
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2025-07-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-07-04 · As-of: 2026-03-12
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

2025-07-04 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-07-04 · As-of: 2026-03-12
SPY NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2025-07-04) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-07-04 · As-of: 2026-03-12
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-06-18): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-06-18 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-06-18): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-06-18 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

Fed Decision (2025-06-18) and GOLD: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-06-18 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2025-06-18) for QQQ: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-06-18 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2025-06-18) for SPY: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-06-18 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-06-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2025-06-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD CPI Win Rate (2025-06-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ CPI Win Rate (2025-06-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2025-06-12) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

BTC After NFP (2025-06-06): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-06-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

NFP Print (2025-06-06) vs ETH: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-06-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

GOLD After NFP (2025-06-06): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-06-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

2025-06-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-06-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

NFP Print (2025-06-06) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-06-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

2025-05-12 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-05-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2025-05-12) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-05-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2025-05-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-05-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ After CPI (2025-05-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-05-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY After CPI (2025-05-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-05-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-05-07) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-05-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH After FOMC (2025-05-07): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-05-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2025-05-07 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-05-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

2025-05-07 FOMC Meeting: QQQ T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-05-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-05-07) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-05-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2025-05-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-05-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2025-05-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-05-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD After NFP (2025-05-02): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-05-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2025-05-02) vs QQQ: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-05-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY NFP Reaction (2025-05-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-05-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2025-04-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-04-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH After CPI (2025-04-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-04-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

2025-04-12 CPI Release: GOLD Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-04-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

2025-04-12 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-04-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

2025-04-12 CPI Release: SPY Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-04-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-04-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-04-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2025-04-04): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-04-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2025-04-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-04-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2025-04-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-04-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY NFP Reaction (2025-04-04): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-04-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

2025-03-19 FOMC Meeting: BTC T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

FOMC Outcome (2025-03-19) for ETH: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

Fed Decision (2025-03-19) and GOLD: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2025-03-19) for QQQ: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-03-19) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2025-03-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2025-03-12) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2025-03-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ Reaction to US CPI (2025-03-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY CPI Win Rate (2025-03-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

2025-03-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-03-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

2025-03-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: ETH Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-03-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

NFP Print (2025-03-07) vs GOLD: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-03-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2025-03-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-03-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2025-03-07) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-03-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2025-02-12) and BTC: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2025-02-12) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2025-02-12) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

2025-02-12 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY Reaction to US CPI (2025-02-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2025-02-07) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-02-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2025-02-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-02-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

2025-02-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: GOLD Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-02-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2025-02-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-02-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY Post-NFP Setup (2025-02-07): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-02-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-01-29): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2025-01-29 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

Fed Decision (2025-01-29) and ETH: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2025-01-29 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

GOLD Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-01-29): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-01-29 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2025-01-29) for QQQ: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-01-29 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-01-29) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2025-01-29 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-01-15): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2025-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2025-01-15): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2025-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2025-01-15): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2025-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2025-01-15) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2025-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY CPI Win Rate (2025-01-15): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2025-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP DOWN Neutral

BTC After NFP (2025-01-10): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2025-01-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP DOWN Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2025-01-10): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-01-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP DOWN Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2025-01-10): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2025-01-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP DOWN Neutral

2025-01-10 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2025-01-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP DOWN Neutral

NFP Print (2025-01-10) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2025-01-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

2024-12-17 FOMC Meeting: BTC T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-12-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-12-17): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-12-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2024-12-17 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-12-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

2024-12-17 FOMC Meeting: QQQ T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-12-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-12-17) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-12-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-12-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-12-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-12-11) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-12-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

2024-12-11 CPI Release: GOLD Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-12-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ After CPI (2024-12-11): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-12-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-12-11) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-12-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-12-06): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-12-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH After NFP (2024-12-06): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-12-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

2024-12-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: GOLD Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-12-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ After NFP (2024-12-06): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-12-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

2024-12-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-12-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-11-14) and BTC: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-11-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH CPI Win Rate (2024-11-14): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-11-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2024-11-14): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-11-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ After CPI (2024-11-14): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-11-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

2024-11-14 CPI Release: SPY Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-11-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

2024-11-06 FOMC Meeting: BTC T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-11-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

2024-11-06 FOMC Meeting: ETH T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-11-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

GOLD After FOMC (2024-11-06): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-11-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

QQQ Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-11-06): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-11-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2024-11-06) for SPY: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-11-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC After NFP (2024-11-01): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-11-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

2024-11-01 Nonfarm Payrolls: ETH Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-11-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD After NFP (2024-11-01): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-11-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-11-01) vs QQQ: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-11-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY After NFP (2024-11-01): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-11-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-10-10) and BTC: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-10-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-10-10) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-10-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2024-10-10): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-10-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-10-10) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-10-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-10-10) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-10-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-10-04): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-10-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2024-10-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-10-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2024-10-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-10-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2024-10-04): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-10-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY NFP Reaction (2024-10-04): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-10-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-09-17) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

2024-09-17 FOMC Meeting: ETH T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

Fed Decision (2024-09-17) and GOLD: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

2024-09-17 FOMC Meeting: QQQ T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

2024-09-17 FOMC Meeting: SPY T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2024-09-11): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-09-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2024-09-11): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-09-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD CPI Win Rate (2024-09-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-09-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-09-11) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-09-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-09-11) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-09-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2024-09-06): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-09-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2024-09-06): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-09-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2024-09-06): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-09-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-09-06) vs QQQ: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-09-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-09-06) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-09-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-08-14): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-08-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

2024-08-14 CPI Release: ETH Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-08-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-08-14) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-08-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ Reaction to US CPI (2024-08-14): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-08-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-08-14) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-08-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

2024-08-02 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-08-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2024-08-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-08-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD After NFP (2024-08-02): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-08-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ After NFP (2024-08-02): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-08-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-08-02) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-08-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-07-30) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH After FOMC (2024-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

GOLD After FOMC (2024-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

QQQ After FOMC (2024-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

SPY After FOMC (2024-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-07-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-07-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2024-07-11): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-07-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2024-07-11): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-07-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

QQQ CPI Win Rate (2024-07-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-07-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY Reaction to US CPI (2024-07-11): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-07-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-07-05): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-07-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2024-07-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-07-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD Post-NFP Setup (2024-07-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-07-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

2024-07-05 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-07-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

2024-07-05 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-07-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI DOWN Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-06-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI DOWN Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2024-06-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI DOWN Bullish

US CPI (2024-06-12) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI DOWN Bullish

US CPI (2024-06-12) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI DOWN Bullish

US CPI (2024-06-12) and SPY: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2024-06-11) for BTC: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-06-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH After FOMC (2024-06-11): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-06-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2024-06-11 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-06-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-06-11) and QQQ: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-06-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2024-06-11) for SPY: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-06-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

2024-06-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-06-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH After NFP (2024-06-07): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-06-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2024-06-07): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-06-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

2024-06-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-06-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-06-07) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-06-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-05-15): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-05-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

2024-05-15 CPI Release: ETH Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-05-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-05-15) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-05-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

2024-05-15 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-05-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

2024-05-15 CPI Release: SPY Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-05-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

2024-05-03 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-05-03 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH NFP Reaction (2024-05-03): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-05-03 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD After NFP (2024-05-03): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-05-03 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ After NFP (2024-05-03): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-05-03 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

2024-05-03 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-05-03 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

BTC After FOMC (2024-04-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-04-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

2024-04-30 FOMC Meeting: ETH T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-04-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

GOLD After FOMC (2024-04-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-04-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2024-04-30) for QQQ: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-04-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2024-04-30) for SPY: Up/Down Probability View

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-04-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2024-04-10): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-04-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-04-10) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-04-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD After CPI (2024-04-10): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-04-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

2024-04-10 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-04-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY After CPI (2024-04-10): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-04-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-04-05) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-04-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2024-04-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-04-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

NFP Print (2024-04-05) vs GOLD: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-04-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

2024-04-05 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-04-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-04-05) vs SPY: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-04-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-03-19): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-03-19): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

Fed Decision (2024-03-19) and GOLD: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-03-19) and QQQ: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

SPY After FOMC (2024-03-19): Historical Signal & Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-03-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH After CPI (2024-03-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

2024-03-12 CPI Release: GOLD Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

2024-03-12 CPI Release: QQQ Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY CPI Win Rate (2024-03-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-03-01): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-03-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-03-01) vs ETH: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-03-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2024-03-01): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-03-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ After NFP (2024-03-01): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-03-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

2024-03-01 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-03-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

2024-02-20 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-02-20 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

ETH Reaction to US CPI (2024-02-20): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-02-20 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-02-20) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-02-20 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-02-20) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-02-20 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

2024-02-20 CPI Release: SPY Directional Probability Snapshot

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-02-20 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2024-02-02): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-02-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

2024-02-02 Nonfarm Payrolls: ETH Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-02-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD After NFP (2024-02-02): Event Probability and Median Return

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-02-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-02-02) vs QQQ: Quantified Directional Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-02-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

SPY NFP Reaction (2024-02-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-02-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC FOMC FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-01-30): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for BTC around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

43.48%

Event date: 2024-01-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH FOMC FLAT Bearish

ETH Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-01-30): Quant Backtest Snapshot

Historical probability profile for ETH around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

30.43%

Event date: 2024-01-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD FOMC FLAT Bullish

2024-01-30 FOMC Meeting: GOLD T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Historical probability profile for GOLD around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

69.57%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-01-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-01-30) and QQQ: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

43.48%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-01-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY FOMC FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-01-30) and SPY: Event-Driven Odds

Historical probability profile for SPY around FOMC events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

52.17%

T+7 P(up)

56.52%

Event date: 2024-01-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC CPI UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-01-15): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

53.85%

Event date: 2024-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH CPI UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-01-15) and ETH: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for ETH around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

58.97%

T+7 P(up)

43.59%

Event date: 2024-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD CPI UP Bullish

GOLD Reaction to US CPI (2024-01-15): Quant Probability Breakdown

Historical probability profile for GOLD around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

56.41%

T+7 P(up)

78.95%

Event date: 2024-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ CPI UP Bullish

US CPI (2024-01-15) and QQQ: Event-Driven Return Odds

Historical probability profile for QQQ around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

61.54%

T+7 P(up)

55.26%

Event date: 2024-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY CPI UP Bullish

SPY CPI Win Rate (2024-01-15): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

Historical probability profile for SPY around CPI events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

64.1%

T+7 P(up)

68.42%

Event date: 2024-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11
BTC NFP UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2024-01-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

29.41%

T+7 P(up)

58.82%

Event date: 2024-01-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
ETH NFP UP Neutral

ETH Post-NFP Setup (2024-01-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for ETH around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

50%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-01-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
GOLD NFP UP Bullish

GOLD NFP Reaction (2024-01-05): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Historical probability profile for GOLD around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

66.67%

T+7 P(up)

79.41%

Event date: 2024-01-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
QQQ NFP UP Neutral

QQQ Post-NFP Setup (2024-01-05): Historical Probability Lens

Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

57.14%

T+7 P(up)

50%

Event date: 2024-01-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11
SPY NFP UP Neutral

2024-01-05 Nonfarm Payrolls: SPY Historical Win Rate

Historical probability profile for SPY around NFP events (T+1/T+7).

T+1 P(up)

47.62%

T+7 P(up)

55.88%

Event date: 2024-01-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11