ETH Post-NFP Setup (2025-08-01): Historical Probability Lens

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: ETH
• Event date: 2025-08-01
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
• Freshness age: 223 days
• Sample size (all-history): 34

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: DOWN (Actual 158472.0, Previous 158542.0, Delta -70.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	-0.15%	34
T+7	55.88%	44.12%	1.44%	2.65%	34

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	50.0%	50.0%	-0.06%	-0.22%	4
T+7	75.0%	25.0%	5.22%	2.63%	4

Historical Distribution Summary

When NFP was DOWN, ETH T+1 up probability was 50.0% (n=4).

When NFP was DOWN, ETH T+7 up probability was 75.0% (n=4).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 5.22%.

For ETH, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 50.0% and T+7 up probability of 55.88%. When NFP printed Down versus previous, T+1 up probability was 50.0% and T+7 up probability was 75.0% across 4 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.