GOLD NFP Reaction (2026-02-11): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: GOLD
• Event date: 2026-02-11
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
• Freshness age: 29 days
• Sample size (all-history): 35

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: DOWN (Actual 158466.0, Previous 158558.0, Delta -92.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	63.64%	36.36%	0.39%	0.5%	22
T+7	77.14%	22.86%	1.31%	1.53%	35

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	62.5%	37.5%	0.54%	0.16%	8
T+7	77.78%	22.22%	2.07%	1.64%	9

Event Outcome Interpretation

This event should be read as a distribution problem, not a headline-only trade. GOLD around NFP is best framed through how the release landed lower than the previous release. The current observation shows actual value 158466.0000 versus previous 158558.0000, a delta of -92.0000. Across the full history, GOLD has a T+7 up probability of 77.14% versus 22.86% down, with a median return of 1.31%. When only matching the same event direction, the T+7 up probability shifts to 77.78% across 8 comparable releases, with a same-direction median of 2.07%. The current release therefore belongs to the downside tail and should be treated as materially weak. The standing hub thesis for this asset-event pair is: Gold often reacts inversely to payroll strength via rates repricing, but follow-through depends on whether labor surprise changes Fed expectations materially.

Distribution Position

This window sits in the weak tail and should be classified as a downside tail event for GOLD after NFP. The current T+7 move of -1.68% carries a z-score of -1.64 and a percentile rank of 2.86, which pushes the release into the weakest decile of observed windows and away from ordinary downside noise. That makes this an extreme negative deviation rather than a routine weak print, so the page should be read with explicit downside-tail caution.

Comparison vs Hub Baseline

This comparison is materially below baseline and should be treated as a true downside-tail gap. Against the hub baseline for this asset-event pair, the current print is measurable rather than anecdotal. The hub baseline median T+7 return is 1.31% and the current gap is -2.99%. Same-direction probability differs by +0.64% and the same-direction median differs by +0.76%. The baseline gap is now large enough to justify a weak-tail classification and a more defensive interpretation. The current regime context also matters: Macro headline digestion has become faster, shortening reaction windows.

Failure Modes

The failure mode here is underestimating how far a downside tail can travel before it stabilizes. The main failure mode is confusing distribution evidence with certainty. Revisions and unemployment-rate cross-signals can flip initial direction. Invalidation needs to be tighter because weak-tail conditions can extend farther than a normal weak window.

Execution Relevance

Use this page as an educational operating lens, not a trading instruction. The operational takeaway is to respect the downside tail and accept a higher invalidation burden before assuming the move is spent. The checklist remains Evaluate headline payroll plus revisions together.; Wait for rate market confirmation before adding size.; Use staggered exits around key session levels.. This is exactly the state where waiting for confirmation matters more than trying to fade weakness too early.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.