BTC After NFP (2025-07-04): Event Probability and Median Return

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: BTC
• Event date: 2025-07-04
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
• Freshness age: 251 days
• Sample size (all-history): 34

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: UP (Actual 158542.0, Previous 158478.0, Delta +64.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	29.41%	70.59%	-0.33%	-0.26%	34
T+7	58.82%	41.18%	1.0%	1.55%	34

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	26.67%	73.33%	-0.39%	-0.31%	30
T+7	56.67%	43.33%	0.81%	1.51%	30

Historical Distribution Summary

When NFP was UP, BTC T+1 up probability was 26.67% (n=30).

When NFP was UP, BTC T+7 up probability was 56.67% (n=30).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 0.81%.

For BTC, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 29.41% and T+7 up probability of 58.82%. When NFP printed Up versus previous, T+1 up probability was 26.67% and T+7 up probability was 56.67% across 30 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.