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BTC Event Research

75 pages with historical event probabilities.

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CPI

29 strategies Open CPI Event Hub
UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-03-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 60% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2026-03-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-02-13): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 60% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2026-02-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2026-02-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 60% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2026-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2026-01-13): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 60% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2026-01-13 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-01-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 60% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2026-01-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-12-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-12-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2025-11-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-11-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2025-10-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-10-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-09-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-09-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

2025-08-12 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-08-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2025-07-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-07-12 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-06-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

2025-05-12 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-05-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2025-04-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-04-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2025-03-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

US CPI (2025-02-12) and BTC: Event-Driven Return Odds

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-02-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2025-01-15): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2025-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-12-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-12-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-11-14) and BTC: Event-Driven Return Odds

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-11-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

US CPI (2024-10-10) and BTC: Event-Driven Return Odds

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-10-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2024-09-11): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-09-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-08-14): Quant Probability Breakdown

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-08-14 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-07-11): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-07-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11

DOWN Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-06-12): Quant Probability Breakdown

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-06-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-05-15): Quant Probability Breakdown

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-05-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC After CPI (2024-04-10): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-04-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-03-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-03-12 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

2024-02-20 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-02-20 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC CPI Win Rate (2024-01-15): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability

T+1 58.97% up · T+7 53.85% up

Event: 2024-01-15 · As-of: 2026-03-11

NFP

29 strategies Open NFP Event Hub
DOWN Neutral

2026-03-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 28.57% up · T+7 60% up

Event: 2026-03-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12

DOWN Neutral

BTC After NFP (2026-02-11): Event Probability and Median Return

T+1 28.57% up · T+7 60% up

Event: 2026-02-11 · As-of: 2026-03-12

DOWN Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2026-02-06): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 28.57% up · T+7 60% up

Event: 2026-02-06 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

2026-01-09 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 28.57% up · T+7 60% up

Event: 2026-01-09 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

NFP Print (2026-01-02) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2026-01-02 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-12-05): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-12-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-11-07): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-11-07 · As-of: 2026-03-12

DOWN Neutral

2025-10-03 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-10-03 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2025-09-05): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-09-05 · As-of: 2026-03-12

DOWN Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-08-01): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-08-01 · As-of: 2026-03-12

UP Neutral

BTC After NFP (2025-07-04): Event Probability and Median Return

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-07-04 · As-of: 2026-03-12

DOWN Neutral

BTC After NFP (2025-06-06): Event Probability and Median Return

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-06-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2025-05-02): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-05-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-04-04): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-04-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

2025-03-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-03-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

NFP Print (2025-02-07) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-02-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11

DOWN Neutral

BTC After NFP (2025-01-10): Event Probability and Median Return

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2025-01-10 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-12-06): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-12-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC After NFP (2024-11-01): Event Probability and Median Return

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-11-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-10-04): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-10-04 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2024-09-06): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-09-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

2024-08-02 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-08-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-07-05): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-07-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

2024-06-07 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-06-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

2024-05-03 Nonfarm Payrolls: BTC Historical Win Rate

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-05-03 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

NFP Print (2024-04-05) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-04-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC NFP Reaction (2024-03-01): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-03-01 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2024-02-02): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-02-02 · As-of: 2026-03-11

UP Neutral

BTC Post-NFP Setup (2024-01-05): Historical Probability Lens

T+1 29.41% up · T+7 58.82% up

Event: 2024-01-05 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FOMC

17 strategies Open FOMC Event Hub
FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2026-01-28) for BTC: Up/Down Probability View

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2026-01-28 · As-of: 2026-03-12

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-12-10) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-12-10 · As-of: 2026-03-12

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-10-29) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-10-29 · As-of: 2026-03-12

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-09-17) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-12

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-07-30) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-12

FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-06-18): Quant Backtest Snapshot

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-06-18 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2025-05-07) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-05-07 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

2025-03-19 FOMC Meeting: BTC T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2025-01-29): Quant Backtest Snapshot

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2025-01-29 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

2024-12-17 FOMC Meeting: BTC T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-12-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

2024-11-06 FOMC Meeting: BTC T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-11-06 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-09-17) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-09-17 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

Fed Decision (2024-07-30) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-07-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

FOMC Outcome (2024-06-11) for BTC: Up/Down Probability View

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-06-11 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

BTC After FOMC (2024-04-30): Historical Signal & Probability

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-04-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-03-19): Quant Backtest Snapshot

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-03-19 · As-of: 2026-03-11

FLAT Neutral

BTC Post-FOMC Reaction (2024-01-30): Quant Backtest Snapshot

T+1 52.17% up · T+7 43.48% up

Event: 2024-01-30 · As-of: 2026-03-11