BTC After CPI (2024-09-11): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns

Event Snapshot

• Event: CPI
• Asset: BTC
• Event date: 2024-09-11
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 546 days
• Sample size (all-history): 39

Event Outcome

• CPI Outcome: UP (Actual 314.732, Previous 314.062, Delta +0.6700)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	58.97%	41.03%	0.51%	0.37%	39
T+7	53.85%	46.15%	1.11%	0.44%	39

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	60.53%	39.47%	0.53%	0.44%	38
T+7	55.26%	44.74%	1.26%	0.58%	38

Historical Distribution Summary

When CPI was UP, BTC T+1 up probability was 60.53% (n=38).

When CPI was UP, BTC T+7 up probability was 55.26% (n=38).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 1.26%.

For BTC, historical CPI windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 58.97% and T+7 up probability of 53.85%. When CPI printed Up versus previous, T+1 up probability was 60.53% and T+7 up probability was 55.26% across 38 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (CPI) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.