BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-08-01): Historical Probability Lens
Historical probability profile for BTC around NFP events (T+1/T+7).
Event Snapshot
Event: NFP
Event date: 2025-08-01
As-of (T-1): 2026-03-12
Freshness age: 223 days
Freshness status: Stale Data
Sample size: 34
Event Outcome
Direction: DOWN
Actual: 158472
Previous: 158542
Delta: -70.0000
All-history
P(up): 29.41%
P(down): 70.59%
T+1 median: -0.33%
T+7 P(up): 58.82%
T+7 median: 1%
Same-direction
T+1 P(up): 50%
T+1 P(down): 50%
T+7 P(up): 75%
T+7 P(down): 25%
Matched sample: 4
Action Lens (Educational)
Historical odds are mixed, so position sizing and risk controls matter most.
Related Events
BTC Post-NFP Setup (2026-02-06): Historical Probability Lens
Sharpe(T+7): 0 · T+7 median: 1% · sample: 34
NFP Print (2026-01-02) vs BTC: Quantified Directional Odds
Sharpe(T+7): 0 · T+7 median: 1% · sample: 34
BTC Post-NFP Setup (2025-12-05): Historical Probability Lens
Sharpe(T+7): 0 · T+7 median: 1% · sample: 34
BTC Price (Event Window)
Candlestick · HistoricalEvent Snapshot
- Event: NFP
- Asset: BTC
- Event date: 2025-08-01
- As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
- Freshness age: 223 days
- Sample size (all-history): 34
Event Outcome
- NFP Outcome: DOWN (Actual 158472.0, Previous 158542.0, Delta -70.0000)
- Direction basis: vs_previous
Probability Table (All-history)
| Window | P(up) | P(down) | Median return | Mean return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 29.41% | 70.59% | -0.33% | -0.26% | 34 |
| T+7 | 58.82% | 41.18% | 1.0% | 1.55% | 34 |
Probability Table (Same-direction)
| Window | P(up) | P(down) | Median return | Mean return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.01% | 0.12% | 4 |
| T+7 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 2.3% | 1.88% | 4 |
Historical Distribution Summary
When NFP was DOWN, BTC T+1 up probability was 50.0% (n=4).
When NFP was DOWN, BTC T+7 up probability was 75.0% (n=4).
Same-direction T+7 median return: 2.3%.
For BTC, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 29.41% and T+7 up probability of 58.82%. When NFP printed Down versus previous, T+1 up probability was 50.0% and T+7 up probability was 75.0% across 4 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.
Methodology
This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.
Trust & Methodology
- Educational content only. This is not investment advice.
- Data sources: FRED (event calendar/outcomes) and yfinance (historical price windows).
- Methodology: all-history and same-direction event windows (T+1/T+7 probability, median, mean, sample size).
- Data last updated at: 2026-03-04T01:58:11+00:00