2025-08-12 CPI Release: BTC Directional Probability Snapshot
Historical probability profile for BTC around CPI events (T+1/T+7).
Event Snapshot
Event: CPI
Event date: 2025-08-12
As-of (T-1): 2026-03-12
Freshness age: 212 days
Freshness status: Stale Data
Sample size: 39
Event Outcome
Direction: UP
Actual: 323.291
Previous: 322.169
Delta: 1.1220
All-history
P(up): 58.97%
P(down): 41.03%
T+1 median: 0.51%
T+7 P(up): 53.85%
T+7 median: 1.11%
Same-direction
T+1 P(up): 60.53%
T+1 P(down): 39.47%
T+7 P(up): 55.26%
T+7 P(down): 44.74%
Matched sample: 38
Action Lens (Educational)
Historical odds are mixed, so position sizing and risk controls matter most.
Related Events
BTC Reaction to US CPI (2024-08-14): Quant Probability Breakdown
Sharpe(T+7): 9.86 · T+7 median: 1.11% · sample: 39
BTC After CPI (2026-02-12): Up/Down Odds and Median Returns
Sharpe(T+7): 0 · T+7 median: 1.11% · sample: 39
BTC CPI Win Rate (2026-01-12): Historical T+1/T+7 Probability
Sharpe(T+7): 0 · T+7 median: 1.11% · sample: 39
BTC Price (Event Window)
Candlestick · HistoricalEvent Snapshot
- Event: CPI
- Asset: BTC
- Event date: 2025-08-12
- As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
- Freshness age: 212 days
- Sample size (all-history): 39
Event Outcome
- CPI Outcome: UP (Actual 323.291, Previous 322.169, Delta +1.1220)
- Direction basis: vs_previous
Probability Table (All-history)
| Window | P(up) | P(down) | Median return | Mean return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 58.97% | 41.03% | 0.51% | 0.37% | 39 |
| T+7 | 53.85% | 46.15% | 1.11% | 0.44% | 39 |
Probability Table (Same-direction)
| Window | P(up) | P(down) | Median return | Mean return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 60.53% | 39.47% | 0.53% | 0.44% | 38 |
| T+7 | 55.26% | 44.74% | 1.26% | 0.58% | 38 |
Historical Distribution Summary
When CPI was UP, BTC T+1 up probability was 60.53% (n=38).
When CPI was UP, BTC T+7 up probability was 55.26% (n=38).
Same-direction T+7 median return: 1.26%.
For BTC, historical CPI windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 58.97% and T+7 up probability of 53.85%. When CPI printed Up versus previous, T+1 up probability was 60.53% and T+7 up probability was 55.26% across 38 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.
Methodology
This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (CPI) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.
Trust & Methodology
- Educational content only. This is not investment advice.
- Data sources: FRED (event calendar/outcomes) and yfinance (historical price windows).
- Methodology: all-history and same-direction event windows (T+1/T+7 probability, median, mean, sample size).
- Data last updated at: 2026-03-04T01:58:11+00:00