Fed Decision (2025-09-17) and BTC: Event-Driven Odds

Event Snapshot

• Event: FOMC
• Asset: BTC
• Event date: 2025-09-17
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
• Freshness age: 176 days
• Sample size (all-history): 23

Event Outcome

• FOMC Outcome: FLAT (Actual 4.5, Previous 4.5, Delta +0.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	52.17%	47.83%	0.27%	-0.18%	23
T+7	43.48%	56.52%	-2.38%	-0.7%	23

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	47.06%	52.94%	-0.19%	-0.15%	17
T+7	47.06%	52.94%	-2.38%	-0.94%	17

Historical Distribution Summary

When FOMC was FLAT, BTC T+1 up probability was 47.06% (n=17).

When FOMC was FLAT, BTC T+7 up probability was 47.06% (n=17).

Same-direction T+7 median return: -2.38%.

For BTC, historical FOMC windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 52.17% and T+7 up probability of 43.48%. When FOMC printed Flat versus previous, T+1 up probability was 47.06% and T+7 up probability was 47.06% across 17 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (FOMC) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.