2025-08-01 Nonfarm Payrolls: GOLD Historical Win Rate

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: GOLD
• Event date: 2025-08-01
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
• Freshness age: 223 days
• Sample size (all-history): 34

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: DOWN (Actual 158472.0, Previous 158542.0, Delta -70.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	66.67%	33.33%	0.5%	0.57%	21
T+7	79.41%	20.59%	1.31%	1.61%	34

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	100.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.94%	3
T+7	100.0%	0.0%	2.59%	2.44%	4

Historical Distribution Summary

When NFP was DOWN, GOLD T+1 up probability was 100.0% (n=3).

When NFP was DOWN, GOLD T+7 up probability was 100.0% (n=4).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 2.59%.

For GOLD, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 66.67% and T+7 up probability of 79.41%. When NFP printed Down versus previous, T+1 up probability was 100.0% and T+7 up probability was 100.0% across 3 matched cases. Current classification is Bullish; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.