GOLD After NFP (2024-02-02): Event Probability and Median Return

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: GOLD
• Event date: 2024-02-02
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 768 days
• Sample size (all-history): 34

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: UP (Actual 157238.0, Previous 157032.0, Delta +206.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	66.67%	33.33%	0.5%	0.57%	21
T+7	79.41%	20.59%	1.31%	1.61%	34

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	61.11%	38.89%	0.34%	0.51%	18
T+7	76.67%	23.33%	1.1%	1.49%	30

Historical Distribution Summary

When NFP was UP, GOLD T+1 up probability was 61.11% (n=18).

When NFP was UP, GOLD T+7 up probability was 76.67% (n=30).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 1.1%.

For GOLD, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 66.67% and T+7 up probability of 79.41%. When NFP printed Up versus previous, T+1 up probability was 61.11% and T+7 up probability was 76.67% across 18 matched cases. Current classification is Bullish; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.