QQQ After FOMC (2025-07-30): Historical Signal & Probability

Event Snapshot

• Event: FOMC
• Asset: QQQ
• Event date: 2025-07-30
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-12
• Freshness age: 225 days
• Sample size (all-history): 23

Event Outcome

• FOMC Outcome: FLAT (Actual 4.5, Previous 4.5, Delta +0.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	43.48%	56.52%	-0.19%	-0.05%	23
T+7	56.52%	43.48%	0.88%	0.27%	23

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	41.18%	58.82%	-0.34%	-0.06%	17
T+7	64.71%	35.29%	1.08%	0.6%	17

Historical Distribution Summary

When FOMC was FLAT, QQQ T+1 up probability was 41.18% (n=17).

When FOMC was FLAT, QQQ T+7 up probability was 64.71% (n=17).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 1.08%.

For QQQ, historical FOMC windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 43.48% and T+7 up probability of 56.52%. When FOMC printed Flat versus previous, T+1 up probability was 41.18% and T+7 up probability was 64.71% across 17 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (FOMC) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.