NFP Print (2024-02-02) vs QQQ: Quantified Directional Odds
Historical probability profile for QQQ around NFP events (T+1/T+7).
Event Snapshot
Event: NFP
Event date: 2024-02-02
As-of (T-1): 2026-03-11
Freshness age: 768 days
Freshness status: Stale Data
Sample size: 34
Event Outcome
Direction: UP
Actual: 157238
Previous: 157032
Delta: 206.0000
All-history
P(up): 57.14%
P(down): 42.86%
T+1 median: 0.15%
T+7 P(up): 50%
T+7 median: 0.12%
Same-direction
T+1 P(up): 50%
T+1 P(down): 50%
T+7 P(up): 50%
T+7 P(down): 50%
Matched sample: 18
Action Lens (Educational)
Historical odds are mixed, so position sizing and risk controls matter most.
Related Events
2025-01-10 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate
Sharpe(T+7): 7.64 · T+7 median: 0.12% · sample: 34
QQQ After NFP (2024-12-06): Event Probability and Median Return
Sharpe(T+7): 3.77 · T+7 median: 0.12% · sample: 34
QQQ After NFP (2024-08-02): Event Probability and Median Return
Sharpe(T+7): 3.35 · T+7 median: 0.12% · sample: 34
QQQ Price (Event Window)
Candlestick · HistoricalEvent Snapshot
- Event: NFP
- Asset: QQQ
- Event date: 2024-02-02
- As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
- Freshness age: 768 days
- Sample size (all-history): 34
Event Outcome
- NFP Outcome: UP (Actual 157238.0, Previous 157032.0, Delta +206.0000)
- Direction basis: vs_previous
Probability Table (All-history)
| Window | P(up) | P(down) | Median return | Mean return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 57.14% | 42.86% | 0.15% | -0.12% | 21 |
| T+7 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.12% | 1.03% | 34 |
Probability Table (Same-direction)
| Window | P(up) | P(down) | Median return | Mean return | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.05% | -0.29% | 18 |
| T+7 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.12% | 1.05% | 30 |
Historical Distribution Summary
When NFP was UP, QQQ T+1 up probability was 50.0% (n=18).
When NFP was UP, QQQ T+7 up probability was 50.0% (n=30).
Same-direction T+7 median return: 0.12%.
For QQQ, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 57.14% and T+7 up probability of 50.0%. When NFP printed Up versus previous, T+1 up probability was 50.0% and T+7 up probability was 50.0% across 18 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.
Methodology
This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.
Trust & Methodology
- Educational content only. This is not investment advice.
- Data sources: FRED (event calendar/outcomes) and yfinance (historical price windows).
- Methodology: all-history and same-direction event windows (T+1/T+7 probability, median, mean, sample size).
- Data last updated at: 2026-03-04T01:58:11+00:00