2024-11-06 FOMC Meeting: ETH T+1/T+7 Probability Profile

Event Snapshot

• Event: FOMC
• Asset: ETH
• Event date: 2024-11-06
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 490 days
• Sample size (all-history): 23

Event Outcome

• FOMC Outcome: FLAT (Actual 5.0, Previous 5.0, Delta +0.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	43.48%	56.52%	-0.1%	0.91%	23
T+7	30.43%	69.57%	-3.26%	-2.8%	23

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	35.29%	64.71%	-1.41%	0.94%	17
T+7	29.41%	70.59%	-3.26%	-1.88%	17

Historical Distribution Summary

When FOMC was FLAT, ETH T+1 up probability was 35.29% (n=17).

When FOMC was FLAT, ETH T+7 up probability was 29.41% (n=17).

Same-direction T+7 median return: -3.26%.

For ETH, historical FOMC windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 43.48% and T+7 up probability of 30.43%. When FOMC printed Flat versus previous, T+1 up probability was 35.29% and T+7 up probability was 29.41% across 17 matched cases. Current classification is Bearish; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (FOMC) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.