2025-06-06 Nonfarm Payrolls: QQQ Historical Win Rate

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: QQQ
• Event date: 2025-06-06
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 278 days
• Sample size (all-history): 34

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: DOWN (Actual 158478.0, Previous 158498.0, Delta -20.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	57.14%	42.86%	0.15%	-0.12%	21
T+7	50.0%	50.0%	0.12%	1.03%	34

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	100.0%	0.0%	0.75%	0.91%	3
T+7	50.0%	50.0%	1.16%	0.94%	4

Historical Distribution Summary

When NFP was DOWN, QQQ T+1 up probability was 100.0% (n=3).

When NFP was DOWN, QQQ T+7 up probability was 50.0% (n=4).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 1.16%.

For QQQ, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 57.14% and T+7 up probability of 50.0%. When NFP printed Down versus previous, T+1 up probability was 100.0% and T+7 up probability was 50.0% across 3 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.