Fed Decision (2024-09-17) and GOLD: Event-Driven Odds

Event Snapshot

• Event: FOMC
• Asset: GOLD
• Event date: 2024-09-17
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 540 days
• Sample size (all-history): 23

Event Outcome

• FOMC Outcome: FLAT (Actual 5.5, Previous 5.5, Delta +0.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	69.57%	30.43%	0.34%	0.24%	23
T+7	56.52%	43.48%	0.9%	0.05%	23

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	70.59%	29.41%	0.32%	0.31%	17
T+7	52.94%	47.06%	0.15%	-0.16%	17

Historical Distribution Summary

When FOMC was FLAT, GOLD T+1 up probability was 70.59% (n=17).

When FOMC was FLAT, GOLD T+7 up probability was 52.94% (n=17).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 0.15%.

For GOLD, historical FOMC windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 69.57% and T+7 up probability of 56.52%. When FOMC printed Flat versus previous, T+1 up probability was 70.59% and T+7 up probability was 52.94% across 17 matched cases. Current classification is Bullish; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (FOMC) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.