US CPI (2024-06-12) and GOLD: Event-Driven Return Odds

Event Snapshot

• Event: CPI
• Asset: GOLD
• Event date: 2024-06-12
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 637 days
• Sample size (all-history): 39

Event Outcome

• CPI Outcome: DOWN (Actual 313.044, Previous 313.175, Delta -0.1310)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	56.41%	43.59%	0.34%	0.3%	39
T+7	78.95%	21.05%	1.4%	1.49%	38

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	0.0%	100.0%	-1.53%	-1.53%	1
T+7	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0

Historical Distribution Summary

When CPI was DOWN, GOLD T+1 up probability was 0.0% (n=1).

When CPI was DOWN, GOLD T+7 up probability was 0.0% (n=0).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 0.0%.

For GOLD, historical CPI windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 56.41% and T+7 up probability of 78.95%. When CPI printed Down versus previous, T+1 up probability was 0.0% and T+7 up probability was 0.0% across 0 matched cases. Current classification is Bullish; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (CPI) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.