ETH NFP Reaction (2024-05-03): T+1/T+7 Up Probability

Event Snapshot

• Event: NFP
• Asset: ETH
• Event date: 2024-05-03
• As-of date (T-1): 2026-03-11
• Freshness age: 677 days
• Sample size (all-history): 34

Event Outcome

• NFP Outcome: UP (Actual 157608.0, Previous 157530.0, Delta +78.0000)
• Direction basis: vs_previous

Probability Table (All-history)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	-0.15%	34
T+7	55.88%	44.12%	1.44%	2.65%	34

Probability Table (Same-direction)

Window	P(up)	P(down)	Median return	Mean return	Sample
T+1	50.0%	50.0%	0.0%	-0.14%	30
T+7	53.33%	46.67%	0.79%	2.65%	30

Historical Distribution Summary

When NFP was UP, ETH T+1 up probability was 50.0% (n=30).

When NFP was UP, ETH T+7 up probability was 53.33% (n=30).

Same-direction T+7 median return: 0.79%.

For ETH, historical NFP windows show all-history T+1 up probability of 50.0% and T+7 up probability of 55.88%. When NFP printed Up versus previous, T+1 up probability was 50.0% and T+7 up probability was 53.33% across 30 matched cases. Current classification is Neutral; this remains an educational probability lens, not investment advice.

Methodology

This page aggregates historical windows for the same event type (NFP) and deduplicates by event date. It reports both all-history probabilities and same-direction probabilities based on event outcome direction (vs previous) for educational use only.