SPY CPI Draft thesis

SPY CPI Probability Playbook & Execution Guide (2026 Update)

Human+Template operating view. Reviewed at 2026-03-03.

Thesis

SPY reacts to CPI through broad risk-premium repricing; downside inflation surprises often support index breadth while upside shocks compress valuation multiples.

What Changed Recently

Sector rotation speed has accelerated in the post-tightening phase.

Risk Watchouts

Energy and healthcare moves can offset index-level signal clarity.

Cross-event Comparison

Compare latest CPI/NFP/FOMC observations for SPY. This section is unique to Hub pages and is used to avoid one-event narrative bias.

Highest T+7 P(up)

CPI

68.42% on 2026-03-11

Strongest T+7 Median

FOMC

0.54% median return

Deepest Sample

CPI

40 matched observations

CPI currently ranks #1 of 3 for T+7 up probability, #2 for T+7 median return, and #1 for sample depth across the SPY event set. The current CPI row prints 62.5% T+1 up probability and 0.51% median return, so the operator should read this hub as a relative ranking page rather than a single-event slogan.

Probability Overview (T+1/T+7)

T+7 Median Return

Event Latest Date T+1 P(up) T+7 P(up) T+7 Median Sample Research
CPI 2026-03-11 62.5% 68.42% 0.51% 40 Open
NFP 2026-03-06 50% 55.88% 0.11% 35 Open
FOMC 2026-01-28 52.17% 56.52% 0.54% 23 Open

Execution Checklist

  • • Track breadth (advance/decline) with index move.
  • • Compare rate-sensitive sectors versus defensives.
  • • Use predefined stop distance from event range.

Trust & Methodology

  • Educational content only. This is not investment advice.
  • Data sources: FRED (event calendar/outcomes) and yfinance (historical price windows).
  • Methodology: all-history and same-direction event windows (T+1/T+7 probability, median, mean, sample size).
  • Data last updated at: 2026-03-03
  • Low confidence: matched sample is limited, so signal reliability is lower than normal.